About us

This project was sponsored by PAX sapiens with co-funding by the Ford Foundation, and was organized by PAX sapiens, Grandview Institution, and Reos Partners.

The final report represents the output of a project that included convening a Scenario Team composed of former government officials, retired military officers, and experts from research institutes and think tanks from the United States and China; one-on-one interviews of each of them; a four-day in-person workshop held in Bangkok (with the logistics supported by the Scenario Thailand Foundation); and then a four-month online process of collective editing.

While the scenarios are the result of careful attention and deliberation, not every participant agrees with all of the details in this document, nor do these scenarios represent the views of the organizing and funding institutions.

The report was written in English and translated as closely as possible into Chinese, with edits throughout the drafting process from both Chinese and English Scenario Team members (many of whom were bilingual). This process highlighted many areas where the language used is itself a point of contention. Our approach to this is to attempt to acknowledge where language is disputed, avoiding taking a position on which term to use, but privileging the preferred wording used in each language.

In preparation for the scenario workshop, members of the scenario team were interviewed to create an overview of their thinking about the current state of the U.S.-China relations. The interviews painted the picture of a deteriorating relationship based on significant differences in political philosophy, interpretation of international rules and laws, and interests—and in large measure on misunderstanding and mistrust. During the interviews and the workshop there was also palpable goodwill and appreciation on each side for the other.